Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.164753 1.359456 1.576285 1.835628 2.137406 2.477533 2.890093
2024-12-22 0.811005 1.057286 1.362686 1.769156 2.296131 2.956633 3.848268
2024-12-29 0.688383 0.970376 1.347625 1.889053 2.646584 3.669788 5.159141
2025-01-05 0.554785 0.833492 1.230116 1.835418 2.736505 4.029906 6.031502
2025-01-12 0.455662 0.723391 1.125315 1.772196 2.788219 4.325238 6.833132
2025-01-19 0.382075 0.637250 1.039084 1.717305 2.834835 4.606581 7.637404
2025-01-26 0.341222 0.595280 1.013149 1.749631 3.017232 5.114457 8.859641
2025-02-02 0.322114 0.585755 1.037155 1.865150 3.348724 5.901669 10.644941
2025-02-09 0.296152 0.559912 1.028834 1.921775 3.583117 6.549123 12.268123
2025-02-16 0.269430 0.528454 1.005604 1.946886 3.761505 7.115527 13.812929
2025-02-23 0.243194 0.493923 0.971620 1.946106 3.889108 7.600493 15.261366
2025-03-02 0.219114 0.460084 0.934192 1.932799 3.988931 8.041523 16.675459
2025-03-09 0.200130 0.434584 0.911086 1.947661 4.152290 8.637131 18.501490
2025-03-16 0.175356 0.393594 0.851526 1.879855 4.137797 8.876079 19.629701
2025-03-23 0.170799 0.395618 0.881891 2.007333 4.554513 10.059879 22.931951
2025-03-30 0.151710 0.362360 0.831678 1.950361 4.558170 10.359143 24.321851
2025-04-06 0.134299 0.330456 0.780188 1.883198 4.529046 10.580756 25.561738
2025-04-13 0.119638 0.302985 0.735184 1.824886 4.512189 10.826579 26.888484
2025-04-20 0.112399 0.292667 0.729121 1.859227 4.721455 11.623545 29.645705
2025-04-27 0.110809 0.296357 0.757328 1.981946 5.164277 13.032461 34.101715
2025-05-04 0.105760 0.290370 0.760734 2.042099 5.456691 14.108069 37.853022
2025-05-11 0.099422 0.280055 0.751778 2.068775 5.665586 14.998773 41.239392
2025-05-18 0.092388 0.266835 0.733496 2.067946 5.800794 15.715067 44.251757